Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The latest impeachment push has already failed in the House, which is an important signal about current congressional appetite for this path. Even setting that aside, the event asks for both impeachment and removal, and removal is the real bottleneck: it requires a two-thirds Senate conviction, a hurdle that is historically rare and politically extreme in a polarized environment. Trump’s previous acquittals underscore how difficult it is to assemble that coalition even after a House impeachment occurs. For this outcome to happen, Democrats would likely need to win the House, initiate a successful impeachment, and then also win enough Senate seats or trigger an extraordinary bipartisan break with Trump to convict him, which is a very narrow path.

Arguments for Yes exist, but they are mostly contingent rather than current. There is still ample time before January 2029 for a major scandal, legal crisis, or political shift to alter congressional behavior, and the recent renewed impeachment effort shows that some lawmakers remain willing to pursue this route. If Trump’s standing deteriorated sharply, especially with a newly elected House majority, an impeachment vote is plausible. But the odds of translating that into removal remain far lower than the odds of impeachment alone.

Against that backdrop, the 17% market price looks too high for a conjunctive outcome requiring both chambers to line up against a sitting president. Markets often overweight the possibility of future political shocks and underweight the structural difficulty of Senate conviction, especially when the question bundles two sequential hurdles. A more realistic base rate is that an impeachment attempt may reappear, but actual removal is an extreme tail event, which is why my independent probability is well below the market.