Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

The strongest current evidence cuts against an imminent resignation: a source close to Alito said in late 2024 that he had no plans to retire anytime soon, and more recent reporting still shows him actively participating in major Court cases. At age 76, he is certainly within the range where retirement is plausible over a multi-year horizon, but there is no direct signal that he is preparing to step down during Trump’s term. The public posture from both Trump and Alito also suggests no immediate tension that would force an earlier departure; if anything, the relationship appears aligned enough to make a strategic resignation less likely in the near term.

That said, the time window is not trivial. Trump’s term runs until January 2029, giving a couple of years in which health, family considerations, or a personal decision could still produce a resignation. Supreme Court justices often time retirements strategically, and Alito will be in his late seventies by the end of the term, so a non-negligible chance of retirement remains. Still, absent fresh reporting, the base rate for an active justice with no announced plans is not high enough to justify a majority yes probability.

Compared with the current market price of 55% yes, the market looks somewhat too optimistic about a resignation. The market may be overweighting age and the general tendency of justices to retire while under a sympathetic president, but the latest concrete signals are the opposite: no retirement plan, continued active participation, and repeated indications that he is still content to remain on the bench. I would price this closer to 40%, with the main upside risk being any sudden health or family-related development.