US real GDP growth in 2033?

The best long-run evidence points to a growth rate around 2% for major developed economies rather than a persistently sub-1.5% outcome. The cited Fed long-run projection is 2.0%, Takeoff’s long-range U.S. forecast trends to roughly 2.0%–2.1% by the early 2030s, and even in slower-growth mature economies the center of gravity is usually closer to 2% than to the low end of the distribution. That makes the 1.1%–1.5% bucket plausible, but not the single most likely landing zone if the market is referring to a mature economy like the U.S. or another large developed market.

The main counterweight is that 2033 is far enough out for policy mistakes, demographic drag, and cyclical slowing to matter a lot. A recession or weak recovery in the early 2030s could push growth into the 0.0% or below bucket, while persistent productivity disappointments could keep the result in the low-1% range. Still, the evidence provided does not support making sub-1.5% the modal outcome; instead, it suggests a broad cluster around 1.6%–2.5% with a meaningful tail toward stronger growth if AI-driven productivity gains materialize.

Against the current market, this looks modestly mispriced rather than wildly off. The market’s 49% on 1.1%–1.5% feels a bit too pessimistic relative to the long-horizon forecasts, while the 1.6%–2.0% and 2.1%–2.5% bands together appear underweighted. I would still keep the distribution fairly spread out because the exact country definition and the state of the global cycle in 2033 are major unknowns, but my independent view is that the center of mass sits closer to 2% than to the low-1% band.