Fed decision in Dec 2027?

I think OpenAI is much less likely than Anthropic to IPO first, so the yes outcome looks heavily overpriced. My independent probability for OpenAI being first is about 15%.

I put the chance of Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before Jan. 21, 2029 at 2%. There is no visible legal predicate for a pardon, and absent a federal case or at least a credible public controversy, the event is extremely unlikely.