US real GDP growth in 2032?

The key fact is that this is a very long-dated macro bet, and the threshold is extremely low. Getting U.S. real GDP growth below 0.1% in a full calendar year generally requires either a sizable recession, a prolonged stagnation episode, or a statistical anomaly, not just a routine slowdown. Over a seven-year horizon, those outcomes are not impossible, but they remain meaningfully rarer than ordinary below-trend growth because the U.S. economy has several structural supports: population growth, productivity drift, policy response capacity, and the tendency for recessions to be sharp but usually followed by rebounds rather than multi-year flatlining.

On the other hand, the horizon is long enough that cyclical forecasts from 2026 to 2028 only partially inform 2032. The broad macro backdrop is positive but not exuberant, with outside forecasters still expecting modest global growth and U.S. growth in the mid-single digits of neither extreme, which implies an economy that is not currently on a path toward collapse. The real risk is not today’s baseline but what could happen through the next business cycle: a policy mistake, financial instability, a debt or credit event, an energy shock, or a supply-side disruption severe enough to push the economy close to zero for a full year.

Compared with the market’s 20% price on Yes, I think the contract looks somewhat overpriced. A 20% chance of sub-0.1% growth implies something closer to one-in-five odds that 2032 becomes essentially flat or worse, which feels high absent evidence of persistent structural stagnation. I would still assign a non-trivial probability because the endpoint is far enough out that several recession windows remain, but the most likely outcome is still positive growth well above the near-zero line, with the central mass concentrated in the low- to mid-2% range rather than around zero.