Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham is a credible front-runner if the next vacancy arises under a Republican president, but the race is still highly contingent on timing, retirements, and White House preferences. I put his independent chance modestly above the market at 29%.
Analysis
Andrew Oldham has a real path to being the next Supreme Court nominee because he fits the profile that Republican administrations have repeatedly favored: younger, deeply conservative, heavily credentialed, and already on a high-profile federal appellate court. He is also more institutionally polished than some alternatives, which matters if the White House wants a nominee who can move through the process without creating avoidable confirmation friction. Among the listed contenders, he looks like one of the safest blends of ideological reliability and confirmability.
The biggest reason to be cautious is that this market is really a combined bet on future vacancy timing and presidential control. If the next opening occurs after a change in administration, the shortlist could shift substantially, and if a Republican president is not in place, Oldham’s odds collapse. Even under a Republican president, personal relationships, Senate dynamics, and the specific vacancy could favor a different judge. James Ho may be more ideologically aligned with parts of the base, Michael Park offers a different confirmation profile, and Thapar has long been seen as a plausible consensus conservative choice.
Compared with the current 20% market price, I think Oldham is somewhat undervalued. The market appears to be discounting his broad acceptability relative to more polarizing alternatives, especially if the selection is driven by a desire for a mainstream conservative jurist with strong appellate credentials rather than a headline-grabbing ideological firebrand. I still would not make him a favorite, because the field is wide and the appointment depends on events between now and 2029, but he deserves to sit above 20% in a normalized contender set.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: He is a highly plausible Federalist Society-style pick with the résumé and judicial temperament presidents typically want.
- Arguments for Yes: Among similar conservatives, he may be more confirmable than some rivals who carry heavier political baggage.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The nomination window is long, and future vacancies plus the 2028 election could completely reshape the field.
- Arguments against Yes: Other contenders like James Ho or Amul Thapar may be preferred depending on the president’s political and legal priorities.
Key drivers
- Oldham has the profile of a conventional Supreme Court shortlist candidate: young enough for a long tenure, clearly conservative, and already on a prestigious appellate bench.
- His relative moderation in style versus some rivals could make him easier to confirm if the White House prioritizes reliability over maximalist signaling.
Risk factors
- The outcome depends heavily on whether the next vacancy happens under a Republican president, which is not guaranteed.
- Another contender could overtake him if the administration wants a different ideological or political balance, especially if a vacancy opens unexpectedly.
Scenarios
Best case
A Supreme Court vacancy opens while a Republican president is in office, and Oldham is viewed as the cleanest combination of ideological fidelity, youth, and confirmability, making him the final pick.
Most likely
A conservative vacancy shortlist forms around several Fifth Circuit and related judges, with Oldham near the top but not clearly dominant, and the final choice depends on timing and White House politics.
Worst case
The next vacancy occurs under a Democratic president, or a Republican president chooses a different conservative jurist, leaving Oldham on the outside.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Oldham | 29% | 20% |
| James Ho | 24% | 10% |
| Michael Park | 18% | 9% |
| Amul Thapar | 17% | 7% |
| Aileen Cannon | 12% | 7% |
More from this day
- FinancialsKalshi13y
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
AI12%MKT97%Edge-85HypedAnthropic appears materially more likely to go public before OpenAI, based on the latest reporting and each company’s stated timing. I assign only a low probability that OpenAI is first, because the newer evidence points to Anthropic’s nearer-term listing window and OpenAI’s delay into 2027.
- CompaniesKalshi1y
Starbucks total global stores in 2026
AI74%MKT11%Edge+63Hidden GemStarbucks is very likely to clear 41,800 global stores sometime in 2026. The market appears to be pricing in a much slower store-opening cadence than Starbucks has historically maintained.
- economyPolymarket3mo
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
AI38%MKT93%Edge-55HypedNo Fed rate cuts in 2026 is plausible, but I still think it is less likely than not because the Fed has historically been willing to ease when labor data soften or inflation cools enough. The market’s very high Yes price looks too confident, but the official projection path and the remaining months still leave meaningful room for one cut.