Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The core issue is institutional control, not just political hostility toward Trump. With Republicans currently holding the House, impeachment is effectively blocked unless there is either a dramatic bipartisan break or a change in chamber control after the 2026 midterms. That makes the near-term path narrow, because a simple majority vote is enough to impeach, but the majority itself still has to exist first, and the current House configuration works strongly against it. Trump’s prior impeachments show that Democrats are willing to use the tool when they have the votes, but history also shows that impeachment is still a high-threshold decision that usually requires both a political mandate and a compelling triggering event.

The strongest argument for Yes is that the remaining time horizon is long enough for control of the House to change, and if Democrats retake it, a third impeachment becomes quite plausible. Several commentators have already signaled that they would pressure Democrats to act, and Trump’s presidency is likely to generate repeated controversies that could provide a formal pretext. Because the market only asks about House passage, not Senate conviction, the bar is lower than many people intuitively assume, which supports some probability of eventual impeachment if the opposition gains power and decides to use it.

Even so, 66% looks too high to me. Markets often overweight the salience of Trump-related political conflict and underweight the need for a specific procedural setup: a Democratic House, a leadership decision to bring articles, and enough party discipline to pass them. If Republicans keep the House after 2026, the chance of impeachment stays very low; if Democrats win it, impeachment becomes materially more likely but still not automatic. The most realistic baseline is that the House majority may change but not always translate into impeachment, putting the true probability closer to the high 30s than the mid-60s.