Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

The market is currently pricing Netanyahu at about 29.5% to be the next prime minister, which suggests skepticism that he will be able to translate electoral strength into another governing coalition. That skepticism is reasonable because this market is not asking whether Likud can win seats, but whether Netanyahu specifically will be the sworn-in prime minister after the election. In Israel’s parliamentary system, that depends on post-election coalition arithmetic as much as on the popular vote, and Netanyahu’s path has become more difficult as opposition parties, coalition partners, and personal fatigue among voters have all accumulated over time.

Arguments for Yes center on the fact that Netanyahu remains one of the most durable political figures in Israeli history. He still has a loyal political base, a highly recognized brand, and a proven ability to navigate fragmented coalition politics. If the election produces a close or divided Knesset, he could again become the compromise choice for right-wing and religious parties that prefer him to a left-leaning or centrist alternative. In a system where no party wins outright and coalition bargaining dominates, an experienced incumbent or former incumbent can often outperform polling expectations, especially if the opposition is split or unable to agree on a single post-election arrangement.

Arguments against Yes are stronger at the moment because Netanyahu’s political ceiling appears constrained. His long tenure, legal baggage, and the strain of repeated elections make it harder to imagine him assembling a broad and stable coalition than in earlier cycles. Even if Likud performs competitively, it may still fall short of a viable majority bloc, and smaller partners may demand a different leader or be reluctant to re-enter a Netanyahu-led government. If the election produces a clear anti-Netanyahu bloc or even a modest shift among swing voters away from him, the most likely outcome is that another figure becomes prime minister rather than Netanyahu returning to office.

Overall, the market’s low Yes price seems directionally justified, but I would not discount Netanyahu as much as a simple popularity measure would suggest. His chance is meaningfully above negligible because he can still exploit fragmentation, security concerns, and opposition disunity. Still, on balance, the structural and political headwinds make a No outcome more likely than Yes, so my estimate is modestly above the market but still well below even odds.