Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The core issue is that this market requires two separate events: impeachment in the House and removal by a two-thirds Senate vote. Impeachment alone is politically possible if Democrats control the House or if a major scandal erupts, but removal is the real bottleneck. In modern U.S. history, removal has never happened, and even presidents who were highly controversial or severely weakened did not reach the threshold in the Senate. That makes the base rate for this outcome very low unless there is an extraordinary national-security, legal, or constitutional crisis that shifts Republican senators en masse.

The most important argument for Yes is that Trump remains one of the most polarizing presidents in recent memory, which increases the chance of a major governing or legal scandal that could trigger impeachment proceedings. If his party loses congressional support, or if some event materially worsens his standing with Senate Republicans, the path to impeachment becomes more realistic than for a typical president. Still, removal demands not just scandal but a durable collapse in party loyalty, and that is far harder to achieve than a House vote.

Compared with the current market price of 16%, I think the market is somewhat optimistic on Yes. A 16% implied probability appears to understate how difficult the Senate removal hurdle is, especially over a finite remaining term where the event has to occur on a very specific procedural path. My estimate is not zero because political conditions can change abruptly, but absent fresh evidence of a near-term existential scandal, the fair probability looks closer to the low teens than the mid-teens.