Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

The biggest reason to assign a meaningful probability is time. From 2026 to 2099 is more than seven decades, which gives SpaceX or successor systems many opportunities to solve the technical barriers that currently make crewed Mars travel speculative. Musk is unusually committed to the Mars goal, has already driven one of the most capable launch companies in history, and continues to shape the organizational and financial resources that would be most likely to make such a mission possible. If a Mars transport system becomes routine in the coming decades, Musk could plausibly choose to be on one of the first human missions, especially if he remains active and healthy enough to travel late in life.

The main constraints are severe. This is not just a question of whether humans reach Mars, but whether Musk personally does so, which adds a layer of health, age, decision-making, and mission-specific risk. He would be 88 in 2099, and the odds of surviving to that age, remaining medically fit, and accepting the risks of an interplanetary trip are all nontrivial. The Starship program is still in an experimental phase, and even optimistic timelines for uncrewed and crewed Mars missions remain highly uncertain. Historical precedent suggests that space ambitions often slip by years or decades, and a Mars surface landing is much harder than a flyby or orbital mission.

Compared with the current market price of 12% yes, I think the market is somewhat pessimistic but not wildly so. The market is probably discounting the compound nature of the event: Musk must be alive, capable, willing, and aboard a mission that actually reaches Mars before the deadline. Still, 12% seems to underweight the combination of a very long horizon, Musk’s persistent commitment, and the possibility that a successful Mars program eventually becomes routine enough for him to go. I would not price this as likely, but I do think the true probability is notably above the current quote.