Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The question is not whether Trump could face impeachment again, but whether both chambers would align to remove him before his term ends. That is a much harder standard than impeachment alone. Removal requires a House majority to impeach and then a two-thirds Senate vote to convict, which historically has never happened in the United States. Even in periods of intense partisan conflict, senators usually hesitate to vote to eject a president unless there is overwhelming bipartisan consensus or an extraordinary crisis that materially shifts public and elite opinion.

The main argument for a non-trivial Yes probability is that Trump is an unusually polarizing president with a long history of generating high-velocity scandals, legal conflict, and intra-party tension. A major new revelation, constitutional crisis, or severe policy or personal misconduct could create a window where House Republicans defect and enough Senate Republicans decide that removal is politically safer than continued support. However, that outcome requires a very specific sequence of events, not just routine controversy or even another impeachment. The Senate conviction threshold remains the key bottleneck, and that has almost never looked attainable absent near-universal elite abandonment.

Against that, the market may be overweighting the possibility of impeachment itself and underweighting the difficulty of actual removal. With a current price of 15%, the market is already assigning a meaningful chance to an outcome that demands a rare alignment of scandal, timing, and congressional math. My independent estimate is closer to 10%, because the baseline is low and the most likely path is that Trump remains in office through the end of the term unless a truly exceptional event dramatically changes the political landscape. The market looks somewhat rich on Yes, though not wildly so, because a small set of tail risks can still justify a double-digit probability.