Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The core question is not whether Trump is polarizing enough to attract impeachment talk; he clearly is. The real constraint is institutional. Impeachment requires a House majority willing to spend political capital on it, and that typically happens only when the president’s party loses control of the chamber or when a truly explosive scandal creates bipartisan pressure. With more than two years remaining, there is time for a shift in House control after the 2026 midterms, and Trump’s history means there is a pre-existing willingness among opponents to use impeachment as a tool. That keeps the probability well above a trivial level.

At the same time, impeachment is easier to threaten than to execute. Many possible controversies do not clear the threshold from partisan outrage to actual House action, especially if the president’s party retains even a narrow majority or if opposition leaders conclude that impeachment could backfire politically. Trump has already been impeached twice, which increases the plausibility of future attempts, but prior impeachments also show that the process does not necessarily follow every major controversy. In a world without a clearly dominant scandal, the default outcome is still that the House may investigate, censure, or posture without taking the final step.

Compared with the current 64% market price, I think this is too optimistic for Yes. The market seems to be treating impeachment as the more likely endpoint simply because of Trump’s volatility and the long remaining runway, but that underweights how dependent impeachment is on congressional composition and elite incentives. A more balanced view is that the event is quite plausible, yet still meaningfully under 50% unless and until there is evidence of a House flip or a sharply escalated legal/political crisis.