Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?

Formally abolishing a cabinet department is a high legislative bar. It would almost certainly require passing authorizing legislation through Congress, and even with a Republican presidency, that is difficult unless the party controls both chambers with enough unity to overcome procedural obstacles and internal resistance. The Department of Education also distributes popular funding streams and oversees politically sensitive programs, which gives defenders leverage to slow or block outright elimination. For that reason, the base rate for complete abolition of a major federal department is very low even in periods of partisan alignment.

The strongest argument for Yes is that Trump has repeatedly signaled hostility toward the department and could use a second-term window to force the issue, especially if Republicans also hold Congress. He could pursue a broad deregulatory agenda, reassign functions, shrink staffing, and try to fold responsibilities into other agencies, creating a practical outcome that feels like elimination even if the statutory department remains in name only. If the political environment is highly favorable, a motivated administration can move faster than many expect, and this market may be partially pricing in that possibility.

Still, the wording of the question matters. “Eliminated” is stricter than “weakened,” “downsized,” or “reorganized,” and formal elimination before 2029 remains hard to accomplish because it would likely face Senate procedural hurdles, interest-group opposition, and implementation delays even if legislation passes. The market’s 17% looks somewhat elevated relative to the institutional difficulty of the task. I would expect the more probable outcome to be substantial attempted restructuring rather than complete legal abolition, which is why I land below the current price.