Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic is a real contender to IPO first, but OpenAI still looks slightly more likely to get there ahead of it because it has the clearer, more advanced public IPO narrative and a confidential filing already in motion. The market is directionally reasonable, though the gap between the companies appears narrower than the current price suggests.
Analysis
OpenAI has the stronger institutional momentum on paper: management has openly framed a public-company path for 2027, while also leaving room for an earlier debut if growth warrants it, and reporting indicates it confidentially filed IPO paperwork in June. That combination suggests a company that is actively preparing for public markets and can accelerate if it wants to. At the same time, the public framing is not a hard commitment to beat anyone else, and the company’s messaging about “running our own race” implies timing will be dictated by internal readiness rather than a race with Anthropic.
Anthropic is the more interesting challenger because the reporting places it in a potentially earlier window, even as soon as September 2026, which would allow it to win the race if the process moves quickly. The problem is that the evidence for Anthropic is less concrete in the provided context: it is discussed as a candidate for an earlier IPO, but there is no equally explicit public commitment from Anthropic itself. That leaves meaningful uncertainty around whether the market chatter reflects real execution readiness or simply optimism about a faster timeline.
Against that backdrop, the current market price of 91% for Yes feels a bit high relative to the actual uncertainty in which company will finish first. Yes is plausible and still my favored side, but the event is not close to locked because both firms appear to be in pre-IPO mode and confidential filings do not establish sequencing. The market likely overweights OpenAI’s scale and visibility while underweighting the possibility that Anthropic, if it truly is nearer to a 2026 window, could move first before OpenAI’s 2027 framing turns into an actual listing.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI’s stated 2027 public-company path and reported IPO filing show active preparation for a listing.
- The scale and maturity of OpenAI’s business make it easier to believe it can execute an IPO cleanly once it chooses to proceed.
Against
- Anthropic has the more aggressive implied timeline in the reporting and could simply move faster.
- OpenAI’s own messaging suggests it is not prioritizing a first-to-market race, which lowers confidence that it will beat Anthropic.
Key drivers
- OpenAI has the more explicit public IPO roadmap and a confidential filing already reported.
- Anthropic has been discussed as potentially going public sooner, which creates real upset potential.
Risk factors
- Confidential filings do not reliably indicate which company will reach the market first.
- Either company could delay for regulatory, valuation, or readiness reasons, making the race highly schedule-sensitive.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates its process, completes its listing before Anthropic, and the market’s Yes side cashes comfortably.
Most likely
OpenAI ends up first, but only by a modest margin, with Anthropic remaining a credible near-term challenger rather than a long shot.
Worst case
Anthropic moves quickly on a September 2026 timetable or otherwise lists first, and OpenAI follows later in 2027 or beyond.
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