US real GDP growth in 2036?

The evidence points much more strongly toward an India GDP growth question than a global GDP growth question. For India, long-horizon projections in the material cluster around roughly 6% to 8.9% annual growth under baseline and aspirational scenarios, while even the pessimistic case remains around 6.0%; that makes a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit outcome in 2036 the most coherent interpretation of the market’s contender set. Near-term strength also supports that frame, with India currently running around 7.6% growth in FY2026 and official commentary suggesting growth may remain above prior forecasts.

If the market instead intended global GDP growth, the case for Yes would be much weaker, because global forecasts in the material are centered near 3% for 2026 to 2027 and around 2.4% to 2.5% in broader outlooks, which would not naturally map to a high-growth 2036 regime. But the contender list itself, especially the heavy weight on 1.6% to 2.5% and the presence of a 6.1% or above bucket, looks far more like an India-style nominal or real growth distribution than a mature-economy global aggregate. That makes the market’s 20% Yes price look too low if this is India, and too high if this is global GDP; the surrounding context makes India the more plausible reading.

Relative to the current market, I think the distribution is mispriced toward overly pessimistic outcomes. The market seems to be anchoring on slowdowns, volatility, or a developed-market baseline, but the cited long-run India scenarios imply a much better chance of staying in the 2.1% to 2.5% and 1.6% to 2.0% ranges than the market currently assigns, with some meaningful tail probability above that if reforms and nominal growth compound strongly. At the same time, the 6.1% or above bucket should not dominate because sustaining that pace for a full 2036-style horizon remains hard, so my view is constructive on Yes but not extreme.