How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
A one-confirmation outcome is the single most plausible result, but the market looks slightly too skeptical given the long window and the historically high likelihood of at least one Supreme Court vacancy over a full term. My independent estimate is modestly above the market at 53% for one confirmation.
Analysis
The central question is not whether a Supreme Court vacancy can happen, but whether the next president gets a confirmation opportunity before the term ends. Over a four-year window, the Court’s age profile, the possibility of retirement, and ordinary unpredictability make a single confirmation materially more likely than not, while multiple confirmations remain much harder to reach because they require either clustered retirements or an unexpected death plus a further vacancy. That leaves 1 as the modal outcome, with 0 still quite plausible if the Court remains unchanged through the term.
The biggest argument for Yes is structural: the event spans the entire 2025-2029 presidential term, giving ample time for one seat to open. Supreme Court justices often serve for many years, but the Court is not static, and a single confirmation is far easier to realize than two or three. The fact that the market already assigns 30% to 2 and 20% to 0 suggests it recognizes meaningful uncertainty, but it may still be underweighting the cumulative vacancy risk across a full term.
The strongest argument against Yes is that confirmation depends on both a vacancy and the political environment at the time, and a four-year term can still pass without one. If the current Court holds together and no justice retires or dies, 0 becomes the correct outcome. Also, because the question specifically asks whether the next president will confirm exactly 1 justice, a second vacancy would turn a likely Yes into a No, which caps the probability even if one seat opens.
Compared with the current market price of 45% Yes, my estimate is somewhat higher, but not dramatically so. The market appears slightly pessimistic about the chance of at least one vacancy over the term, and slightly too generous to the no-confirmation and two-confirmation cases relative to a single confirmation. The most likely mispricing is at the margin: 1 is the cleanest central outcome, while the market seems to be splitting probability too evenly between 0, 1, and 2.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The event window is long enough that one retirement or unexpected opening is quite plausible.
- Arguments for Yes: Exactly one confirmation is the most natural midpoint outcome when one vacancy occurs in a multi-year term.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Supreme Court vacancies are uncertain and can easily fail to materialize over a single term.
- Arguments against Yes: If two vacancies occur, the market loses despite the first confirmation happening.
Key drivers
- Length of the presidential term gives multiple years for a vacancy to emerge.
- A single Supreme Court confirmation is more likely than zero or two over a full term.
Risk factors
- No vacancy occurs if the Court remains unchanged through the term.
- A second vacancy would shift the outcome away from exactly one confirmation.
Scenarios
Best case
One justice retires or dies early in the term and the president secures a single confirmation, with no additional vacancies before the term ends.
Most likely
One vacancy occurs at some point during the term and is successfully filled, making exactly one confirmation the most probable outcome.
Worst case
No justice leaves the Court during the term, or two separate vacancies arise, making the exact-one outcome fail.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 45% |
| 2 | 27% | 30% |
| 0 | 17% | 20% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% |
| 9 | 1% | 2% |
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