Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

The market’s current pricing implies that Netanyahu is not the favorite to be the next prime minister, and that is a reasonable starting point. In Israel’s parliamentary system, the key question is not just whether Likud performs well, but whether Netanyahu can assemble a governing coalition after the election. That creates a high bar even if he remains the most familiar and politically durable figure on the right, because a plurality alone is not enough and coalition partners can be both essential and unreliable.

Arguments for Yes are straightforward: Netanyahu is still one of the most experienced political operators in Israel, he has a strong personal brand with a loyal base, and he remains the central figure around whom much of the right-wing political map is organized. If the security environment remains tense or voters prioritize continuity and hardline leadership, his bloc could outperform expectations. He also benefits from the fact that Israel’s opposition has historically struggled to hold together long enough to deny him power, especially when the anti-Netanyahu camp is split among multiple leaders with competing ambitions.

Arguments against Yes are at least as strong. Netanyahu carries substantial personal baggage, including long-running legal and political controversies, and a significant share of the electorate appears exhausted by repeated cycles centered on him. Even if Likud wins a strong result, coalition arithmetic may still work against him if smaller parties prefer an alternative right-leaning leader or if a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc can coordinate after the vote. On balance, his path is very real but narrow, so a probability in the low-to-mid 30s is more defensible than treating him as a favorite.