Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

OpenAI is clearly the more visible and better-capitalized IPO candidate, but visibility is not the same as speed. The most relevant recent reporting says OpenAI has confidentially filed, yet its CFO is publicly framing a 2027 public-company timeline while explicitly acknowledging that Anthropic could “pull the cover off” its filing first and go public sooner. That matters because when management openly concedes the rival may beat it to market, the chance of an OpenAI-first outcome falls materially unless OpenAI accelerates much more than currently signaled.

Anthropic appears to have at least as much procedural momentum and may have a timing advantage. The reporting provided says both companies are confidentially under file, but Anthropic has been discussed as potentially moving into a public listing window as early as September 2026, while OpenAI’s own guidance points later, toward 2027 or earlier. In a race defined by who crosses the public-market finish line first, even a modest lead in filing readiness and intended timing is meaningful, especially because IPO calendars can shift quickly based on SEC review, market conditions, and internal valuation debates.

Against that, there is real uncertainty because confidential filings are invisible until a company chooses to reveal more, and either firm could accelerate or delay for strategic reasons. OpenAI has the stronger incentive to control narrative and may decide that beating Anthropic matters enough to compress timing, which is the main reason this is not a near-certainty for Anthropic. Still, with the current evidence, a market price implying roughly a 92% chance of OpenAI or Anthropic going public first looks heavily tilted toward OpenAI-first. That seems mispriced: the better independent read is that Anthropic is more likely to precede OpenAI, and OpenAI-first should be treated as the minority outcome.