Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

The strongest argument for Yes is that 2026 has stayed unusually hot through the middle of the year, with July matching the warmest July on record in one major dataset and strong regional heat reinforcing the global signal. That kind of sustained warmth matters because the annual ranking is based on the full-year average, and a year that is already near the top by mid-August has a real path to finishing first if late-year months remain elevated rather than cooling sharply.

At the same time, the current evidence does not make 2026 a runaway favorite. NOAA-style year-to-date tracking still has the year around third-warmest through July, and outside summaries point to a finish somewhere in the top five, most likely third or fourth, which is consistent with a very hot year but not necessarily a record breaker. In other words, the baseline is strong warmth, but the margin needed to overtake prior record years is still uncertain and may be modest or nonexistent if the next several months normalize.

The market is also balancing competing model signals. Berkeley Earth’s updated probability estimate implies a materially higher chance of a record than it did earlier in the summer, and that kind of upward revision usually reflects a meaningful shift in expected global conditions. However, the fact that another prominent view still favors second or third rather than first suggests the market may be overconfident at the current price. My assessment is that Yes is more likely than not, but not by nearly as much as the current implied pricing suggests.