How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
The most likely outcome is still no Supreme Court confirmations, with one confirmation a meaningful but slightly underpriced possibility. My independent estimate puts a single confirmation around 45%, driven by the long horizon and the real chance of one retirement or unexpected vacancy, but not enough to make it the modal outcome.
Analysis
The core question is whether the next President can confirm exactly one Supreme Court justice during the 2025-2029 term. As of now, the Court is fully staffed, and the public reporting available suggests no justice has announced immediate plans to leave; both Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito have been discussed as aging justices, but recent coverage still describes them as not expected to retire imminently. That makes the current baseline one of inaction rather than a near-term vacancy, which pulls probability away from an easy Yes.
At the same time, the event horizon is long enough that one vacancy is far from unlikely. Supreme Court service is life tenure, but the practical retirement and mortality risks over a four-year presidential term are real, especially with multiple justices in their mid-70s or older. The market’s 0.39 price on exactly one confirmation implies the crowd sees a meaningful but not dominant chance of a single opening; that feels directionally right, though I would shade slightly higher because over a full term, one confirmation is more plausible than either none or two.
Compared with the market, this looks only modestly mispriced rather than dramatically wrong. I would expect no confirmation to remain the single largest outcome if the Court stays intact through most of the term, but exactly one confirmation should be competitive because one unexpected retirement or health event is enough to flip the market. The biggest reason not to go much higher than the mid-40s is that two justices are the primary plausible vacancy sources, and the court’s current signals do not support building in a near-certain opening.
Arguments
For
- Aging justices raise the probability of at least one opening before 2029.
- Historical Supreme Court turnover over a four-year presidential term is often driven by one unplanned vacancy rather than scheduled retirements.
Against
- No justice has publicly signaled an imminent departure, which supports the No side in the near term.
- Because the market asks for exactly one, a second vacancy would turn a plausible Yes into a No.
Key drivers
- The term is long enough that one unexpected vacancy is a realistic possibility.
- The Court is currently full, so the base rate for any confirmation still depends on retirement or death timing.
Risk factors
- A complete lack of Supreme Court vacancies would make the Yes outcome fail.
- Two confirmations become more likely than one if multiple justices retire or a vacancy arrives late in the term.
Scenarios
Best case
One justice retires or dies during the term, and the President confirms a single replacement before January 2029.
Most likely
The Court stays intact for much of the term, but the aging composition keeps exactly one confirmation as the most plausible positive vacancy-driven scenario, though still not the single most likely outcome overall.
Worst case
The Court remains unchanged for the entire term, or the President confirms two or more justices, causing this exact outcome to lose.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 39% |
| 0 | 33% | 30% |
| 2 | 18% | 30% |
| 3 | 3% | 3% |
| 9 | 1% | 2% |
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