Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

The baseline case is that the United States does not acquire any part of Greenland by early 2029. A real territorial transfer would require sustained support from Denmark, some form of consent or negotiated arrangement involving Greenland’s political institutions, and a durable U.S. willingness to pursue a legally and diplomatically complex outcome. Those hurdles are substantial, and in the absence of a major strategic crisis, the status quo is likely to persist because both Denmark and Greenland have strong reasons to resist any outright cession.

Arguments for Yes exist, but they are mostly tied to strategic improvisation rather than a conventional annexation path. The Arctic has clear military and geopolitical value, and the U.S. has historically pursued long-horizon influence in Greenland through defense agreements, base access, and investment rather than sovereignty transfer. If there were a major shift in Arctic security, a security compact, lease-like arrangement, or some special territorial status could be framed as the U.S. taking control of part of Greenland even without full annexation, which keeps the tail risk alive.

Compared with the current market price of 27% Yes, my estimate is lower. The market seems to be giving substantial weight to a low-probability but highly salient geopolitical scenario, likely driven by the prior prominence of U.S.-Greenland rhetoric and the possibility of an unusual bilateral deal. That said, the event wording is broad enough that a creative partial-control arrangement could settle Yes, so the market is not irrationally high, just somewhat overstating the chance of an actual breakthrough under normal political conditions.