Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

The broad climate backdrop still favors extremely warm years, because the planet is operating on a much higher baseline than it did even a decade ago. That makes another record year possible in principle, but 2026 would have to beat an exceptionally high bar set by 2024, and the annual ranking depends on the full January-to-December average rather than a few standout months. As of mid-August, there is not much room left for a surprise, so the year would need an unusually strong finish to overtake the current benchmark.

The biggest short-term swing factor is the state of the tropical Pacific and whether 2026 develops into a strong El Niño-like pattern. Record-breaking global annual temperatures often need that kind of boost on top of the long-term warming trend, while neutral or La Niña-leaning conditions tend to suppress the annual mean enough to keep a year short of first place. If 2026 has spent most of the year without a major ocean-driven tailwind, it becomes much harder to catch 2024, because the calendar average is already heavily determined by the first eight months.

The market price of 65.5% for Yes looks aggressive relative to that setup. The case for Yes is that the climate system remains loaded with heat, ocean warmth has been very persistent, and even one strong late-year anomaly could still push the average over the line. The case against Yes is stronger: 2026 does not need to be merely very warm, it needs to be the warmest year ever recorded in NASA’s dataset, and that is a much higher hurdle than simply landing in the top few years. My read is that 2026 is more likely to finish near the top of the rankings than at number one, with the most probable outcome being a record-adjacent year that falls short of 2024.