Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think OpenAI is substantially less likely than the market implies to IPO before Anthropic. The stronger read from the current evidence is that Anthropic has a modest but real timing edge, so I price the Yes outcome well below the market.
Analysis
OpenAI does have the cleaner public paper trail, including a confidential S-1 filing, and that would normally make it the likelier first mover. But the more important variable is timing, and the latest reporting points the other way: OpenAI’s debut has drifted later, with 2027 now appearing plausible, while Anthropic is being described as aiming at an earlier window. In a race defined by who actually lists first, a company that is already signaling delay can easily lose even if it filed first.
The market looks too anchored to OpenAI’s early filing and brand prominence. A confidential S-1 is meaningful, but it is not a committed IPO date, and companies routinely slip after filing if valuation, volatility, or internal governance issues make the timing unattractive. Anthropic’s reporting is thinner and less official, which argues for caution, but the sheer spread between a 93% Yes price and the current evidence is hard to justify. I think the market is overconfident that OpenAI’s procedural lead will translate into the first public listing; my base case is that Anthropic edges it out or that OpenAI delays enough to lose the race.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has taken the more advanced formal step toward an IPO by confidentially filing with the SEC.
- OpenAI may still have the stronger incentive and market appetite to move first if it decides to strike while conditions are favorable.
Against
- Recent reporting consistently suggests OpenAI is postponing and could wait until 2027.
- Anthropic appears to have the earlier public-market window in the current news flow, which directly undercuts a Yes outcome.
Key drivers
- OpenAI’s timeline has softened materially, with multiple reports pointing to a 2027 listing window.
- Anthropic is now being described in the press as targeting an earlier IPO window than OpenAI.
Risk factors
- OpenAI already has a confidential S-1 on file, which could allow it to accelerate if management changes course.
- Anthropic’s earlier timing reports are less official and could prove speculative or delayed.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates after its filing, markets stabilize, and it launches before Anthropic can complete its own process.
Most likely
Both companies continue inching toward public markets, but Anthropic’s earlier timing advantage holds and OpenAI does not get to market first.
Worst case
Anthropic successfully lists first after moving ahead with an earlier filing and OpenAI slips into 2027 or later.
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