Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

The Insurrection Act is one of the few domestic emergency powers that a president can invoke largely on his own authority, and Trump has both the rhetorical style and the political instincts that make such a move more plausible than under most presidents. Over a four-year term, the probability of a triggering event is not trivial: large-scale protests, civil disorder, or a confrontation over immigration enforcement could all create conditions where he or his advisers see the law as a way to bypass local resistance and project control. Even so, the action would still be extraordinary, which keeps the baseline probability well below a coin flip.

The strongest argument against a higher number is that Trump has other tools that are easier, less controversial, and often sufficient. He can federalize resources, deploy the National Guard through other legal pathways, pressure governors, use DHS and DOJ authorities, or simply escalate politically without crossing the Insurrection Act threshold. He also has reason to avoid a step that would invite immediate legal, congressional, and public backlash, especially if the factual predicate looks thin. The fact that he did not invoke the Act during the unrest of his first term is a meaningful cautionary precedent, even if the second term may differ.

Compared with the current market price of 22% yes, I think the market is somewhat conservative but not badly wrong. The price appears to underweight the combination of Trump’s willingness to use dramatic executive power and the long time horizon left in the term, which gives several opportunities for an incident to arise. Still, this is not a high-confidence yes; most plausible crises can be managed without crossing the line, so the fair value is only modestly above the market rather than dramatically higher.