Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

An impeachment requires only a House majority, so the question is less about whether Trump can behave controversially enough and more about whether the political incentives line up for House leaders to act. There is still substantial time left in the term, and Trump’s presidency is unusually confrontation-prone, which keeps the risk meaningfully above that of a normal president. Even so, impeachment remains a serious institutional step, not just a symbolic rebuke, and many members will hesitate unless there is a major new scandal, legal crisis, or unmistakable public mandate for action.

The biggest structural variable is control of the House after the 2026 midterms. If Democrats win the House, the odds of proceedings rise materially, especially because Trump has already been impeached twice and opponents may see a repeat as politically and procedurally easier to justify. If Republicans retain the House, the probability falls sharply because impeachment becomes close to impossible absent an extraordinary break with Trump. Senate conviction is not required for a Yes, but the near-certainty of acquittal still matters because it reduces the political payoff of initiating the process.

At 60% Yes, the market appears to be pricing in a near-inevitable escalation, and that looks too high based on historical precedent and the institutional friction involved. A more defensible read is that impeachment is plausible but still distinctly less likely than not, with the most probable outcome being continued partisan conflict without formal impeachment. The market may be overreacting to Trump’s volatility and prior impeachments while underweighting how often Congress chooses not to pull that trigger even in highly adversarial environments.