Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

With no fresh news to anchor the forecast, the best way to price this event is by structural fragility: which cabinet member is most likely to become politically inconvenient, burn out, or be forced out by a crisis. On that basis, Hegseth belongs in the upper tier because defense is a visible, high-stakes portfolio where personnel missteps, discipline issues, or clashes with the Pentagon can quickly become existential. Still, he is not an obvious frontrunner, because the most vulnerable next exit often comes from the person whose job is hardest to sustain, not simply the one with the loudest controversies.

Hegseth’s case for leaving first is that he sits in a role where every controversy is amplified and where Trump could decide that a loyalty problem or management failure is no longer worth the cost. The case against him is that Trump often tolerates turbulence from loyal, combative appointees, especially when they are useful as public warriors. That makes Hegseth more likely than the market implies, but not enough to make him the favorite over the broader field.

Relative to the current market, 14% looks a bit low for Hegseth, mainly because the market appears to be spreading risk across a crowded set of alternatives. My independent view is that Hegseth is one of the more exposed names, but the presence of RFK Jr. and Susie Wiles as similarly plausible exit candidates limits his share of the total. In other words, the market is probably underweighting his specific fragility, though it is not wildly off given how competitive the field is.