Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Oldham is a real contender, but the event is still mostly about whether a Supreme Court opening materializes at all before 2029. I put his chance a bit below the market because the shortlist is crowded and the vacancy risk is still the main bottleneck.
Analysis
This is still mostly a vacancy-and-politics bet, not a pure talent contest. There is no confirmed opening yet, so Oldham first needs a justice to leave before January 2029 and then needs to be chosen from a very competitive conservative bench. If a vacancy does appear under a Republican White House and Senate, Oldham would be a serious option because he is a young appellate judge with a record that fits the modern Supreme Court pipeline.
Among the named contenders, Oldham is credible but not uniquely advantaged. James Ho has similar ideological appeal and a strong national profile, Sauer may have an edge if the nominating team prioritizes executive-branch legal experience and fast confirmation, and Menashi is another young appellate option with plausible support. Cannon is the least natural fit structurally because a district judge leap to the Court is possible but less conventional and likely to draw more resistance.
My independent estimate is slightly below the market’s 16% yes price. The board seems to be rewarding Oldham’s visibility as a top name, but that can overstate the true probability because the biggest driver is still whether a vacancy happens at all, and the eventual nominee could easily be someone outside the current cluster of board leaders. On balance I see Oldham as one of the more plausible names, but not as likely as the market implies.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Oldham has the kind of young, conservative appellate resume presidents often want for a long-term Court pick.
- Arguments for Yes: He appears more broadly confirmable than some flashier alternatives, which matters if the White House wants a smoother Senate path.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: There is still no concrete vacancy, so the event depends on a major structural condition that has not yet happened.
- Arguments against Yes: The field is crowded enough that Oldham can be a leading name without actually being the eventual selection.
Key drivers
- A real vacancy before 2029 is the main prerequisite for any Oldham scenario.
- The White House and Senate composition at the moment of vacancy will determine whether a conservative shortlist can move quickly.
- Oldham's age, appellate seat, and conservative credentials keep him firmly in the conversation if the opening comes.
Risk factors
- No current vacancy signal means the market can easily be overpricing any one named candidate.
- A different contender could become the consensus choice if the political environment shifts or a more confirmable nominee is preferred.
Scenarios
Best case
A Supreme Court vacancy opens while a sympathetic White House and Senate are in place, and Oldham becomes the nominee because he is young, credentialed, and confirmable.
Most likely
The market remains driven by speculation for a while longer, and if a vacancy does appear Oldham stays in the mix but faces strong competition from other conservative legal figures.
Worst case
No vacancy emerges, or a vacancy is filled by another contender or an outside choice, leaving Oldham as a prominent but unsuccessful shortlist name.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Oldham | 27% | 16% |
| James Ho | 24% | 15% |
| Aileen Cannon | 13% | 10% |
| D. John Sauer | 21% | 9% |
| Steven Menashi | 15% | 8% |
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