Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
OpenAI looks meaningfully more likely to IPO before Anthropic because it is already further along in the formal process. Still, the lead is not ironclad given OpenAI’s reported willingness to delay and Anthropic’s ability to move quickly if it chooses.
Analysis
The strongest evidence favors OpenAI being first. OpenAI has already taken the concrete regulatory step of confidentially filing a draft S-1, which is usually the clearest signal that a company is in active IPO preparation. By contrast, the evidence for Anthropic is mostly speculative and market-based rather than procedural; in practical terms, that means OpenAI has a real head start even if neither company has locked in a timetable.
The main reason to temper that conclusion is timing uncertainty. Reuters reporting suggests OpenAI could still wait until 2027 if management wants a richer valuation or more favorable market conditions, and a delayed OpenAI listing would create room for Anthropic to jump ahead if it accelerates its own plans. So the race is not just about who is closer today, but about who is more willing to act before the window changes.
On balance, I would still make OpenAI the favorite because formal IPO preparation is harder to dismiss than rumor or prediction-market chatter. The current price of 0.83 implies a very strong belief in OpenAI-first, and that seems a bit too high given the real risk that OpenAI intentionally postpones or that Anthropic surprises with a faster launch. I think the market is directionally right but somewhat overstating the certainty of OpenAI’s lead.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already crossed the formal IPO-preparation threshold, which usually precedes a listing.
- There is no equally strong evidence that Anthropic is at the same stage.
Against
- OpenAI’s own reporting suggests the company may wait until 2027, which creates a real chance for a delay.
- Prediction-market sentiment and analyst chatter imply Anthropic could move faster than the public evidence currently shows.
Key drivers
- OpenAI has already filed a confidential draft S-1, giving it a concrete procedural advantage.
- Anthropic lacks comparable confirmed filing evidence, so its IPO timeline is less anchored.
Risk factors
- OpenAI could deliberately delay its debut to pursue a higher valuation or better market conditions.
- Anthropic could accelerate unexpectedly and overtake OpenAI if it becomes ready to list sooner.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI moves quickly after its filing, market conditions stay favorable, and it launches before Anthropic can finalize its own process.
Most likely
OpenAI remains ahead on process and still ends up first, but the margin is narrower than the market price suggests because timing decisions can shift.
Worst case
OpenAI continues to delay while Anthropic executes a faster IPO path and becomes the first of the two to go public.
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