Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The key distinction is that impeachment is a House action, while removal requires conviction by two-thirds of the Senate. On the facts available now, there is no active impeachment proceeding, Republican control remains the main obstacle, and the Senate threshold makes the full yes outcome much harder than a simple impeachment question. That pushes the independent probability into the low single digits to low teens, with the main path being a future House flip followed by an unusually damaging scandal that changes Senate behavior.

Historically, Trump has already been impeached twice and still was not removed, which underscores how difficult conviction is even when there is intense partisan conflict. The 2026 midterms matter because a Democratic House could reopen impeachment, but even a sympathetic House does not solve the Senate problem. For the yes outcome to happen, Trump would need not just a political setback but a sufficiently severe event that drives multiple Republican senators to abandon him, and that is a very demanding condition.

The current market price of 19% looks high relative to the combined requirement of impeachment and removal. Traders may be anchoring on the plausibility of another House impeachment if Democrats gain power, but that is only the first gate; the second gate is the far more restrictive Senate conviction. Given the absence of an active process and the lack of evidence that 17 Republican senators would ever vote to convict under normal conditions, I think the market is overestimating the true conjunction probability.