Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I put OpenAI-first at 27%. OpenAI has the filing head start, but the freshest reporting points more strongly to Anthropic reaching the public markets sooner.
Analysis
OpenAI has the procedural head start because it has already confidentially filed, but the market question is really about execution, not paperwork. The latest reporting consistently says OpenAI still has no fixed timetable and may not list until 2027, while Anthropic has been portrayed as moving on a faster late-2026 path. In that setup, Anthropic looks more likely to reach the public markets first unless OpenAI suddenly commits to an accelerated debut.
The main argument for OpenAI is that its brand, scale, and already-filed status could let it move quickly if management chooses to capitalize on favorable conditions. But the same factors can slow it down: a very large expected valuation, governance complexity, and a strong ability to remain private if that is strategically preferable. Filing first is helpful, but it does not guarantee the earliest listing.
Against the current market price, 84% for OpenAI-first looks too aggressive. The evidence in hand supports OpenAI as a meaningful contender, but not as such a dominant favorite when the cited reports are repeatedly pushing its timeline back and keeping Anthropic’s schedule relatively nearer-term. I would price OpenAI-first closer to the high-20s, with the market likely overcounting filing order and undercounting delay risk.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already filed confidentially, which gives it a sequencing advantage if it decides to move fast.
- Its brand and investor demand could support a quick debut once management chooses a date.
Against
- Multiple reports say OpenAI may slip into 2027, which weakens the case for it going first.
- Anthropic is the company currently described as moving toward a nearer-term 2026 window.
Key drivers
- Relative timing of each company's reported IPO window is the central determinant.
- OpenAI's willingness to accept public-market valuation and governance tradeoffs could accelerate or delay its debut.
- Anthropic's ability to stay on its reported late-2026 schedule would likely decide the race if OpenAI slips.
Risk factors
- Either company can postpone without much notice, so the ordering may hinge on late internal decisions.
- A market downturn or valuation reset could delay both listings and scramble the expected timeline.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI leverages its filed status and strong demand to complete a late-2026 IPO before Anthropic finalizes its own plans.
Most likely
Anthropic stays on a 2026 track and OpenAI slips, so Anthropic goes first.
Worst case
Anthropic lists in 2026 while OpenAI remains private into 2027 or later.
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