Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham is a credible conservative contender, but the lack of an imminent Supreme Court vacancy makes his standalone path narrower than the market implies. I put his chance below the current price, mainly because the event depends first on a vacancy and then on him beating several equally plausible rivals.
Analysis
The decisive issue is vacancy probability, not Oldham’s résumé. With Justice Alito saying he plans to stay for another term, the near-term path to any opening is weaker than the headline name recognition suggests, and even a nomination would still need Senate confirmation before the deadline.
Oldham is still a serious conservative appellate judge with strong Trump-aligned credentials, so if a Republican administration gets a vacancy he would be a real contender. But the field is crowded with other high-signal names, especially James Ho and D. John Sauer, and Oldham does not obviously dominate on ideology, political proximity, or confirmability.
Against the current market, I land below the 16% implied price and closer to 12%. The market looks a bit rich if it is treating Oldham as though a vacancy is already likely, when the more important bottleneck is whether any seat actually opens in time.
Arguments
For
- Oldham has Fifth Circuit experience, a strong conservative record, and credibility with Republican legal insiders.
- He is institutionally safe enough to be a plausible and confirmable choice if a vacancy opens under favorable political conditions.
Against
- No current vacancy means his probability is constrained by an upstream event that may never happen before the deadline.
- He faces serious competition from other prominent conservative judges and lawyers who could be preferred over him.
Key drivers
- Whether a Supreme Court vacancy occurs before January 2029 is the main gatekeeper for any candidate.
- Oldham is well positioned in the conservative legal ecosystem, but he must outperform other prominent Trump-aligned contenders.
Risk factors
- No vacancy or a delayed vacancy would sharply reduce the chance that Oldham is the next justice.
- A different nominee from the same conservative bench, especially James Ho or D. John Sauer, could overtake Oldham if an opening appears.
Scenarios
Best case
A vacancy opens in a Republican-friendly confirmation environment, Oldham emerges as the administration’s preferred safe conservative pick, and he clears the Senate before January 2029.
Most likely
No immediate opening materializes, and if a vacancy does occur, the eventual nominee comes from the same conservative pool but is not necessarily Oldham.
Worst case
No vacancy occurs before the deadline, or a vacancy is filled by James Ho, D. John Sauer, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, or another nominee.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Oldham | 23% | 16% |
| James Ho | 27% | 15% |
| Aileen Cannon | 8% | 10% |
| D. John Sauer | 22% | 9% |
| Steven Menashi | 20% | 8% |
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