Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Samuel Alito is 76 now and would be approaching 79 by the end of Trump’s term, so the basic age-and-timing case for a retirement is real. Conservative justices often have an incentive to leave while a like-minded president can name a successor, and that logic is especially strong if Alito wants to protect the Court’s current ideological balance. On the other hand, there is no visible health trigger or unmistakable signal of an imminent exit, and life-tenured justices frequently stay longer than outside observers expect.

The most important new fact is Alito’s own public comment that he is here for another term. That does not eliminate a later resignation during Trump’s presidency, but it does push the earliest plausible exit out to mid-2027 and reduces the chance of an opportunistic near-term retirement. In practice, a justice who is still functioning well and has not announced any transition plan often remains in place longer than the surrounding political incentives would suggest.

Against that backdrop, the market price looks too high. A 63% yes price implies resignation is more likely than not, but the available evidence supports a meaningful chance that Alito simply rides out the term and continues beyond January 2029. I would treat this as a plausible but far from dominant outcome, with the market likely over-weighting age and speculation relative to Alito’s explicit denial of an immediate departure.