Will President Trump be impeached during his term?
I think impeachment is meaningfully less likely than the market implies, because it still depends on a future House majority shift and then on that majority actually choosing to act. My independent estimate is 43% for Yes.
Analysis
The central fact is that impeachment requires a House vote, and Republicans still control the House in mid-2026, so the near-term path is effectively blocked. The main route to a Yes outcome is a Democratic House after the 2026 midterms, followed by a decision to move articles of impeachment before January 2029. That is plausible, but it is a conditional chain rather than a single event, and each step has real political friction.
Trump’s prior two impeachments matter because they show the process is politically feasible and that Democrats are willing to use it when they believe the case and incentives align. At the same time, those episodes also show how partisan the process is and how little it guarantees in terms of durable support. Even if Democrats win the House in 2026, leadership may still prefer investigations, subpoenas, and messaging over a formal impeachment unless there is a sharp scandal or a broad public mandate.
The market’s 61% Yes price looks too aggressive to me. It appears to assume that a future Democratic House will almost mechanically produce impeachment, but that is not the same as merely winning control, and the 2026 outcome is not assured. With time left on the clock, the event is certainly live, but I would still price the most likely outcome as no impeachment, with a substantial but not dominant chance that political conditions eventually make it happen.
Arguments
For
- Trump has already been impeached twice, so the institutional and partisan precedent for doing it again already exists.
- If Democrats win the House in 2026, the probability of a formal impeachment push rises sharply from today’s level.
Against
- Republicans control the House right now, which makes impeachment impossible without a major political reversal or unusual GOP defections.
- Even with a Democratic House, impeachment is not automatic and may never happen without a clear, widely legible scandal.
Key drivers
- The 2026 House election is the decisive gatekeeper for whether impeachment becomes procedurally realistic.
- Trump’s second-term conduct could create a new scandal large enough to change Democratic incentives quickly.
Risk factors
- A late Republican hold on the House would leave too little time for a full impeachment process before January 2029.
- Democratic leaders may conclude that oversight and electoral messaging are safer than launching a third impeachment.
Scenarios
Best case
Democrats win the House in 2026, a major scandal or abuse of power emerges, and articles of impeachment pass in 2027 or 2028.
Most likely
The House remains the main bottleneck, investigations intensify, but impeachment never becomes sufficiently compelling or timely enough to pass.
Worst case
Republicans retain the House through the end of the term, or Democrats take it too late and never bring a vote before January 20, 2029.
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