Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains in office and has recently been visible as HHS secretary, so there is no direct evidence of an imminent departure. Still, his position is unusually fragile because the most persistent friction in the administration has centered on vaccines, autism, and broader public-health policy, which are exactly the issues that can turn a cabinet secretary into a political liability rather than an asset.

The reason to keep his odds elevated is that cabinet exits often happen after a prolonged period of policy strain, not only after a clean public break. The reporting points to recurring internal tension, some personnel churn at HHS, and continued White House pressure on Kennedy to advance contentious investigations, all of which suggest a relationship that could deteriorate if the politics become inconvenient.

Relative to the other likely contenders, Kennedy is probably one of the top two most vulnerable names, but not a lock to be first out. Pete Hegseth looks comparably exposed on management and controversy grounds, while Chris Wright and Doug Burgum appear more institutionally stable, and the market may be underweighting how much Kennedy's visibility and ideological clashes raise his exit risk. The 16% market price looks a bit too low to me, though not wildly wrong, because the current evidence supports real vulnerability without showing an active move to remove him.