Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

The key issue is not whether traffic is improving, but whether it can improve enough, fast enough, to clear a fairly demanding threshold. The market resolves Yes only if the 7-day moving average of arrivals reaches 60 or higher at any point before the deadline. Recent data and reporting suggest the strait is still deeply depressed, with daily transits in the low teens at times and weekly totals that remain far below pre-crisis norms. Even the more upbeat weekly figure cited in recent coverage still implies traffic that is only a fraction of what would be considered normal for this corridor, so the current level is not close to the resolution line in a durable way.

The main argument for Yes is that the strait is a critical global chokepoint, so once security conditions stabilize, traffic can rebound quickly in absolute terms. There is already evidence of partial recovery, including more ships from outside Iran-linked fleets returning and some categories such as gas carriers and container ships showing improvement. If hostilities ease, insurers regain confidence, and naval/security risks recede, a sharp catch-up move is possible because a lot of deferred shipping demand would want to flow through the route rather than permanently avoid it.

The argument against Yes is stronger because the remaining calendar window is short and recovery is not just a matter of opening a gate. Shipping lines, cargo owners, insurers, and crew managers need time to reprice risk, reassign vessels, and rebuild schedules. Recent accounts still describe strikes, political friction, and no durable deal that would restore ordinary traffic patterns. Industry commentary also suggests that even after reopening, normal cargo flows may take months to normalize, which is longer than the time left before the end of September. That makes a quick jump to a 60-plus seven-day average possible, but not the base case.