Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

OpenAI has the stronger public IPO signal, but signal strength is not the same as speed. A confidential S-1 is an important step, yet the recent reporting still points to no committed timeline and even some drift toward 2027, which leaves room for Anthropic to get to market first if its earlier filing and faster 2026 execution path hold up. In a race defined by timing rather than readiness, the company with the cleaner near-term process often wins, and that appears to be Anthropic right now.

The case for OpenAI is that it has more obvious momentum, more visible preparation, and arguably the greater incentive to seize a high-profile listing window once conditions are right. If OpenAI decides to accelerate and Anthropic runs into any delay, the outcome can flip quickly because both firms are still in the pre-IPO planning phase. But the reported gap in timing is meaningful: OpenAI’s public story reads like preparation, while Anthropic’s reported path reads like execution.

Compared with the market price, my view is substantially less bullish on OpenAI being first. An 86% implied probability suggests the market is treating OpenAI’s public signaling as near-determinative, but the news flow does not justify that level of confidence when Anthropic is repeatedly described as earlier on the filing/listing timeline. The more realistic read is that OpenAI has a strong chance, but the race is close enough that the market is overpricing OpenAI’s lead.