Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?

The most important recent signal is the Court’s refusal to hear the Kim Davis matter, which left Obergefell undisturbed and suggests no appetite right now for reopening marriage equality through that vehicle. That said, a denial of certiorari is not a merits endorsement, so it does not eliminate the possibility that the Court could take a better-framed case later if justices want to revisit the precedent more directly.

The case for a yes outcome rests on the current Court’s willingness to reconsider long-settled substantive due process rulings after Dobbs, along with the fact that several justices have openly criticized Obergefell in the past. But overturning marriage equality is still a heavier lift than Dobbs because the reliance interests are enormous, public support is broad, and even conservative justices may prefer to avoid a ruling that would unwind millions of marriages and create immediate practical chaos.

Compared with the current market price of 8%, I think the market is a bit too confident that the answer is no. There is a plausible path to reversal within the next few years if a direct challenge reaches a receptive Court, but the more likely outcome is still preservation or at most some narrower ruling on ancillary religious-liberty issues rather than full overruling.