Will the US take control of any part of Canada?

The core issue is that territorial acquisition from Canada would require extraordinary cooperation from Canada itself, likely including provincial or regional consent, Canadian federal approval, and some form of bilateral treaty process. None of the provided context suggests even the beginning of that chain, and the current U.S.-Canada dispute is about tariffs and trade leverage rather than any land transfer mechanism. In practical terms, this is not a policy item with a plausible glide path; it would be a constitutional and diplomatic rupture.

Historical precedent also cuts sharply against a Yes outcome. The United States has never successfully taken Canadian territory by force, and modern North American politics make conquest, annexation, or cession vastly less plausible than in earlier eras. The Greenland analogy is useful only as a reminder that Trump can create noise around territorial ideas, but Greenland has repeatedly been rejected by Denmark and Greenland itself, and even that case is far more conceivable than acquiring Canadian territory because Canada is a sovereign G7 state with deep democratic institutions and strong national opposition to such an idea.

The market at 10% looks materially too high to me. I suspect it is pricing a generic Trump tail risk, plus the possibility of some ambiguous outcome being interpreted as control, rather than a sober estimate of actual Canadian territorial acquisition. The most likely reason the market is mispriced is that there is a large gap between provocative rhetoric and the formal legal steps that would be required here, and the news flow shows no sign of those steps emerging.