Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
RFK Jr. is a credible but not dominant candidate to be the next cabinet departure. The pressure points with Trump are real, but the absence of any concrete exit signal and the presence of other vulnerable cabinet members keep this well below a certainty.
Analysis
RFK Jr. has a genuine path to being the next cabinet member out because the relationship with Trump is visibly strained on core policy issues, especially vaccines and autism research. The recent HHS turnover reinforces that the department is under stress, and departments with active internal friction often become the first place where a resignation or firing emerges.
At the same time, the strongest near-term evidence points to continued tenure rather than an imminent exit. He is still appearing publicly with Trump, there is no confirmed departure or replacement process, and some reporting explicitly frames the speculation as chatter rather than a settled plan. That matters because being the next cabinet departure is a relative race, not just a question of whether he eventually leaves.
Compared with the other contenders, RFK looks more exposed than stable technocrats like Chris Wright or Doug Burgum, but he is not the only plausible flashpoint. Pete Hegseth likely carries even more headline risk because of the combination of controversy and discipline concerns, which is why the market should not treat RFK as a near-lock. The current 18% market price looks a bit low, but only modestly so; the market is probably underweighting the friction at HHS while correctly recognizing that another cabinet exit could happen first.
Arguments
For
- Trump and Kennedy have visible tension over vaccines and autism policy, which creates a real resignation or firing risk.
- The resignation churn around HHS suggests internal instability that could spill upward to Kennedy himself.
Against
- He remains publicly engaged in the administration, which argues against an imminent departure.
- The cabinet contains other high-risk figures, so Kennedy can be vulnerable without being the next one out.
Key drivers
- Trump has publicly pressed Kennedy on vaccines and autism, creating a direct policy conflict that can escalate quickly.
- HHS has already shown leadership churn, which is often an early warning sign for a cabinet-level departure.
Risk factors
- Kennedy is still active in cabinet meetings and there is no concrete sign that he is preparing to resign.
- Other cabinet members, especially Pete Hegseth, may be more likely to leave first and push RFK out of the top spot.
Scenarios
Best case
Trump and Kennedy manage to paper over the policy disputes, HHS stabilizes, and RFK remains in place through the next major political cycle.
Most likely
Kennedy stays in the role for now, but remains one of the more fragile cabinet members and a live candidate for a later departure rather than the immediate next one.
Worst case
A major fight over vaccines or another HHS controversy leads to a rapid firing or resignation, making Kennedy the next cabinet member to leave.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 23% | 18% |
| Pete Hegseth | 30% | 14% |
| Chris Wright | 18% | 12% |
| Markwayne Mullin | 12% | 11% |
| Doug Burgum | 17% | 9% |
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