Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2026 is unlikely to be the hottest year on record, with current data from NASA and NOAA indicating it will most likely rank as the second hottest year after 2025, though a 19% chance remains for it to surpass 2024 if an intense El Niño develops in the final quarter.
Analysis
Current temperature data through mid-2026 shows that 2026 is running exceptionally warm, with every published month ranking among the five warmest globally for that specific month, but it has not yet surpassed the all-time record held by 2024 at 1.28°C above NASA's baseline. NASA explicitly confirmed 2025 as the hottest year on record and stated that while 2026 temperatures are high, they are not exceeding 2025 levels, solidifying the consensus that 2026 will rank second rather than first. The NOAA report reinforces this by stating it is virtually certain 2026 will be among the top ten warmest years and very likely within the top five, driven by record ocean heat and the onset of El Niño, but not necessarily the top spot.
Market sentiment has shifted significantly away from the "hottest year" outcome, with Polymarket data showing a 62% probability for 2026 ranking as the second hottest year, reflecting the weight of authoritative agency data. Carbon Brief's projection estimates a 19% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year on record, beating the prior record set in 2024, while also noting a 19% chance it ends up as the third or fourth warmest year. This 19% probability aligns with the current market price of 0.4 for "Yes" but suggests the market may be slightly overpricing the hottest-year outcome compared to scientific consensus.
The primary uncertainty lies in the potential intensity of El Niño in the final quarter of 2026, which could push global averages higher, though current forecasts suggest this impact is more likely to elevate 2027 to the top spot rather than 2026. To breach the record, 2026 would need to average approximately 1.77°C warming above pre-industrial levels for the remainder of the year, a threshold that current calculations suggest is unlikely to be met without an unexpectedly intense El Niño event. Regional records, such as those in the UK and Central England where 2026 is running warmer than 2025, do not equate to a global record and should not be conflated with the overall ranking.
Arguments
For
- Every published month of 2026 has ranked among the five warmest globally for that month
- Strong-to-very-strong El Niño is still intensifying through the second half of the year
- Carbon Brief estimates a 19% chance 2026 will be the warmest year on record
- Record ocean heat provides a baseline for potentially exceeding previous anomalies
Against
- NASA explicitly confirmed 2025 as the hottest year and stated 2026 is not exceeding 2025 levels
- 2024 remains the all-time record holder at 1.28°C above NASA's baseline as of June 2026
- NOAA states 2026 is very likely within top five but not necessarily the top spot
- Current calculations suggest the remainder of 2026 needs to average significantly higher temperatures to achieve #1 rank
Key drivers
- NASA and NOAA confirmation that 2025 is the hottest year on record, not 2026
- El Niño intensity in the final quarter of 2026 determining if it can surpass 2024
- Current monthly data showing 2026 consistently in top-5 but not exceeding 2024's 1.28°C anomaly
- Market consensus shifting to 62% probability for 2026 ranking as second hottest year
Risk factors
- Unexpectedly intense El Niño in Q4 2026 could push global averages higher than projected
- Data revisions or delays in NASA's final 2026 report could alter the ranking
- James Hansen's projection of high climate sensitivity suggesting 2026 could surpass 2024
- Regional heat extremes in UK and Central England creating false perception of global record
Scenarios
Best case
An unexpectedly intense El Niño in Q4 2026 pushes global averages to 1.77°C above pre-industrial levels, allowing 2026 to surpass 2024 and become the hottest year on record.
Most likely
2026 ranks as the second hottest year on record, following 2025, with global averages between 1.37°C and 1.58°C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with NASA and NOAA data.
Worst case
El Niño weakens significantly in the final quarter, causing 2026 to rank as the third or fourth warmest year, well below the record held by 2025.
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