Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
USAID has already been eliminated as an independent agency in July 2025, with its functions absorbed into the State Department, making the 'Yes' outcome certain.
Analysis
USAID was officially shut down in July 2025 by the Trump administration, ending its operations as an independent grantmaking agency. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on March 28, 2025 that USAID would be dissolved and absorbed into the U.S. State Department, with operations ceasing entirely as of July 1, 2025. Nearly all USAID staff were fired or placed on leave by March 2025, and 83% of its programs were terminated, with remaining functions transferred to the State Department and USDA. Multiple sources confirm USAID no longer exists as a distinct agency, with its grants portal defunct and no new grants awarded under its previous structure.
The current market price of 29% for 'Yes' appears severely mispriced given that the elimination has already occurred. This discrepancy likely stems from market participants confusing the administrative dissolution with the legal status, as USAID was reorganized by Congress in 1998 and technically can only be abolished by an act of Congress. However, the event question asks whether USAID will be eliminated during Trump's term, and the agency has already been functionally eliminated and dismantled. The market may also be reacting to the technical legal existence rather than the practical reality of the agency's cessation.
Arguments
For
- USAID officially ceased implementing foreign assistance on July 1, 2025
- Agency no longer operates as independent grantmaking entity with defunct grants portal
- 94% of staff laid off and 83% of programs terminated
- Functions transferred to State Department and USDA under America First framework
Against
- USAID legally still exists as Congress-reorganized independent agency from 1998
- Some aid functions continue under State Department rather than complete elimination
- Market may interpret elimination as requiring full congressional abolition
Key drivers
- Official cessation of USAID operations on July 1, 2025
- Absorption of USAID functions into the State Department
- Termination of 83% of USAID programs and 94% staff layoffs
- Elon Musk's DOGE vow to shutter USAID permanently
Risk factors
- Technical legal existence of USAID as Congress-reorganized agency
- Potential congressional action to restore USAID as independent agency
- Market confusion between functional elimination and legal abolition
Scenarios
Best case
USAID is fully abolished through congressional legislation, eliminating any legal remnants and restoring no functions under its original name.
Most likely
USAID remains dissolved as an independent agency with all functions permanently absorbed into the State Department, confirming the elimination outcome.
Worst case
Congress passes legislation to reinstate USAID as an independent agency before January 2029, reversing the Trump administration's dissolution.
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