Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

As of July 21, 2026, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) has passed the House and the Senate Banking Committee but remains on the Senate Legislative Calendar without a scheduled floor vote. Senate leadership has not announced a debate date, and the bill requires 60 votes to overcome cloture, creating a significant hurdle given unresolved objections from Democrats regarding illicit finance provisions and the American Bankers Association's concerns over stablecoin yield. The bill is also not yet reconciled with the Senate Agriculture Committee's version, adding another layer of legislative complexity before it can reach the President.

The practical deadline for passage is August 7, 2026, the final scheduled Senate workday before the August recess. Missing this window would effectively close the path for the 119th Congress, as the Senate typically does not return to consider major legislation until after the recess. While Senator Cynthia Lummis, the lead sponsor, has expressed hope for floor action possibly the week of July 20, the lack of an official schedule and continued Democratic challenges suggest that securing the necessary 60 votes in the remaining weeks is highly uncertain.

Market sentiment and expert analysis have shifted negatively in recent weeks. Galaxy Research lowered its 2026 passage probability from 75% to approximately 50% or lower as of mid-July, while Polymarket currently prices passage at 40–50%. Gate.com's prediction market showed only a 35% chance of passage as of July 16, and one analyst expressed 95% confidence that the Act will not pass in 2026. These estimates reflect growing skepticism about the bill's ability to navigate the remaining legislative hurdles before the August recess.