Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

As of July 20, 2026, Donald Trump has not been impeached or removed, though Representative Al Green has formally declared articles of impeachment will be filed following remarks on July 16. The critical structural barrier is that the House is Republican-controlled, making passage of impeachment articles unlikely without significant bipartisan support. Even if impeachment occurs, removal requires a two-thirds majority (67 votes) in the Senate to convict, a threshold no impeached president has ever met.

Historical precedent strongly favors the No outcome: Trump was impeached twice in his first term but acquitted by the Senate both times, and no impeached president has ever been removed from office. While public support for impeachment has risen from 36% to 50% recently, this remains well below the bipartisan consensus needed for Senate conviction. The 2/3 Senate requirement is deliberately high to ensure removal requires overwhelming bipartisan agreement, which current partisan alignment does not support.

The market currently prices Yes at 17%, which appears slightly elevated relative to the fundamental barriers. My independent assessment of 12% reflects the extreme difficulty of overcoming both the Republican House control and the 67-vote Senate threshold. The market may be overreacting to Rep. Green's declaration without fully weighing the structural impossibility of achieving the necessary bipartisan consensus in a highly polarized environment.