Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Current market prices imply a 70% probability that Justice Samuel Alito will resign during Trump's term, but this assessment contradicts the most recent factual evidence and credible reporting. As of late June 2026, NPR retracted a false story claiming Alito retired, and sources close to Alito explicitly confirmed he is not planning to retire this year. Furthermore, Alito remains an active and influential member of the court, recently authoring majority opinions and refusing to recuse himself from major cases, signaling no immediate intent to step down.

Prediction markets have historically coalesced around a mid-2027 exit window with roughly 42% probability, while the chance of a departure before the end of 2026 has fallen to approximately 7-10%. The current market price of 70% appears to be an overreaction to speculative rumors or a misinterpretation of the 2027 window as a certainty for the entire Trump term. Given that Alito is 76 and strategic timing suggests he may wait to ensure a Republican Senate confirms his replacement, the likelihood of a resignation occurring specifically within the remaining Trump term (ending January 2029) is constrained by the narrow confirmation window and his demonstrated commitment to active judicial duties.

The market's high pricing likely fails to account for the strong evidence against an immediate exit and the possibility that Alito could serve beyond 2027, potentially into the next presidential term. While a 2027 resignation is the most probable single date, it does not guarantee a resignation will occur before Trump leaves office in 2029, especially if health or political calculations shift. The divergence between the 70% market price and the 7-10% probability for the immediate window suggests a significant mispricing that favors the 'No' outcome.