Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?

The probability of Trump purchasing Greenland is effectively zero given the absolute refusal of both Denmark and Greenland to sell the territory. Denmark has repeatedly stated Greenland is not for sale, warned that military action would end NATO cooperation, and confirmed that the Danish constitution prohibits selling Greenland without Greenlandic consent which has been firmly denied. International law experts universally agree that any transfer would violate the Greenlandic people's right to self-determination, rendering such an agreement legally invalid regardless of bilateral negotiations between the US and Denmark.

Trump has actively demanded the sale since early 2026, threatening force and tariffs before claiming a vague 'framework' was reached with no disclosed terms. In July 2026 he revived claims that Greenland should be US-controlled, shared a provocative map implying acquisition, and triggered a Greenland research institute to halt US collaborations. Despite this aggressive posture, no deal exists, negotiations continue without progress, and European leaders have criticized the provocations while the EU and NATO oppose any acquisition.

The current market price of 18% for 'Yes' appears significantly mispriced relative to the factual reality. Prediction markets assign less than 5% probability to any US territorial acquisition before January 2027, peaking at only 22% by the end of Trump's term. The market likely overweights Trump's rhetorical aggression and underweights the insurmountable legal, political, and public barriers. Given that 85% of Greenlanders oppose US control, their Prime Minister explicitly stated 'Greenland does not want to be owned by the United States,' and Denmark cannot legally sell without their consent, the realistic probability is closer to 1-2%.