Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

The probability that Donald Trump will end the Federal Reserve before January 20, 2029 is effectively zero due to fundamental legal and structural barriers. The Federal Reserve was created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, a federal statute that can only be repealed by Congress through legislation passed by both the House and Senate and signed into law. A president has no unilateral authority to abolish the central bank, regardless of political pressure or public criticism regarding interest rates. While Trump has frequently attacked Fed policy and demanded lower interest rates, there is no evidence he has advocated for the institution's elimination, and no credible legislative effort to abolish the Fed exists in Congress.

Current Fed leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh is actively defending the bank's independence against political interference, explicitly stating in July 2026 congressional testimony that he will resist any external pressure to compromise the Central Bank's autonomy. Institutional stability remains intact with confirmed board members like Michelle Bowman holding terms through 2029, and the Fed continues operational functions including rate adjustments and new task forces on AI and communication. The conflict between Trump and the Fed is strictly limited to monetary policy disagreements, not structural abolition.

The current market price of 5% for 'Yes' appears slightly inflated relative to the near-certain impossibility of the event. While markets sometimes assign non-zero probabilities to extreme political scenarios, the legal requirements for abolishing the Fed make this outcome virtually impossible without Congressional action that has zero traction. The 1% probability I assign reflects the theoretical possibility of an unprecedented constitutional crisis or legislative miracle, but the overwhelming weight of evidence points to the Fed continuing unchanged through Trump's term.