Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains actively serving as Secretary of Health and Human Services with no confirmed resignation as of July 20, 2026, though he faces a new, high-impact Hatch Act complaint alleging illegal election interference that could force his departure. The complaint, filed by Sen. Ron Wyden, cites audio evidence of RFK Jr. pressuring third-party candidates to drop out in exchange for White House support, which Democrats label 'brazenly corrupt' and a clear Hatch Act violation. While this legal scrutiny significantly elevates his resignation risk compared to other Cabinet members, RFK Jr. was recently listed among officials visiting Wisconsin for administration duties, indicating he is still fully engaged in his role.

The market currently prices RFK Jr. at 34% as the next departure, which appears to underweight the severity of the Hatch Act complaint and the precedent that such violations often lead to resignations or removals for political appointees. My independent assessment raises his probability to 42% because the complaint is the most serious and recent threat to any Cabinet member’s tenure, with no other contender facing comparable active legal or political crises. However, the probability remains below 50% because RFK Jr. has not withdrawn, Trump’s administration may defend him, and the Office of Special Counsel investigation could take time without immediate action.

Comparing contenders, Pete Hegseth (15% market) and Markwayne Mullin (11% market) lack comparable active scandals, while Howard Lutnick and Susie Wiles face no public departure risks. RFK Jr.’s prior confirmation controversy over anti-vaccine rhetoric and narrow 52–48 Senate vote further weaken his long-term stability, making him the clear frontrunner for next departure despite remaining in office today.