When will any company achieve AGI?

Current expert consensus and CEO timelines point to AGI arriving in the late 2020s to early 2030s, with Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis projecting a 50% chance by 2030 and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei suggesting AGI is likely by 2027 but acknowledging significant uncertainty. While frontier-lab leaders like Sam Altman and Elon Musk have made bullish claims placing AGI within the 2026–2028 window, these represent the optimistic tail rather than the median expectation, which community aggregators like Metaculus place around 2033 with only a 25% probability by 2029. Crucially, no company has yet publicly announced AGI achievement, and any future declaration would likely require independent verification, making a formal pre-2028 announcement a high-bar event.

The market currently prices the 'Yes' outcome at 46%, which appears slightly inflated relative to the weight of evidence. My independent assessment of 42% reflects a more conservative view that accounts for the gap between executive optimism and the broader community’s median forecast, as well as the historical tendency for AGI timelines to compress but not yet materialize by the earliest claimed dates. The market may be over-weighting the bullish outliers (Altman, Musk) while under-weighting the caution of Hassabis and the lack of any verified announcement to date.