Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

As of mid-July 2026, NASA has confirmed 2025 as the current record holder for the hottest year, while indicating that 2026 temperatures are high but have not exceeded 2025 levels. The first half of 2026 has not yet surpassed 2025's full-year average, and to become the hottest year, the remaining six months would need to average 1.77°C above the long-term average, a statistically difficult threshold that makes a first-place finish improbable. Multiple authoritative sources including NASA and NOAA project 2026 will rank second, with NOAA stating it is virtually certain to be within the top 10 and very likely in the top five due to El Niño onset and record ocean heat.

The emerging El Niño is projected to peak toward the end of 2026, which may push 2027 into record-breaking territory rather than 2026, as the full warming impact of El Niño typically lags behind its onset. While specific regions like France and Europe experienced record-breaking heatwaves in spring and June 2026, these regional extremes do not equate to a global annual record surpassing 2025. Carbon Brief's analysis based on five different research groups estimates a 62% chance that 2026 ends as the second-warmest year, with only a 19% probability of it becoming the warmest year on record.

Expert opinions show some divergence, with James Hansen projecting 2026 will be the hottest year citing high climate sensitivity, but this remains a notable outlier against the prevailing consensus. Market data reflects this uncertainty with the Yes outcome at 36.5%, though scientific evidence suggests the probability should be lower. Berkeley Earth's analysis predicts 2026 will rank roughly as the 4th warmest year since 1850, with global temperatures expected around 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels, while other forecasts converge on a 4th-5th place ranking as the central estimate.