Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

USAID has been effectively eliminated as an independent agency by the Trump administration in early 2025. The administration dismantled the agency, fired or placed almost all employees on leave by March 2025, and officially ceased operations on July 1, 2025, transferring all foreign assistance functions to the State Department. Acting USAID administrator and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the dissolution, and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency publicly boasted about shuttering the agency permanently. Multiple sources describe the agency as having 'ceased to exist' in operational terms, with only a tiny fraction of staff remaining to manage transitions.

While USAID legally still exists as an independent establishment under Congress's 1998 reorganization and can only be abolished by an act of Congress, the market question asks whether it will be 'eliminated,' which in practical terms refers to its operational and functional elimination. The administration has already achieved this through executive action, and the 2027 Republican funding bill reinforces the dismantling by slashing humanitarian aid programs without repair. The market price of 29% for 'Yes' appears significantly mispriced, likely reflecting confusion between legal nominal existence versus functional elimination.

The market may be underpricing 'Yes' because it overemphasizes the legal requirement for Congressional abolition, ignoring that the agency has already been functionally dissolved with operations ceased, staff removed, and functions transferred. Given that the event end date is January 20, 2029, and the elimination occurred in 2025, the 'Yes' outcome has already materialized in practice. The only remaining uncertainty is whether Congress might formally restore USAID as an independent agency before 2029, which appears unlikely given the Republican funding bill's support for the dismantling and continued pressure on aid budgets.